Trump vs Renewables: How Will New US Policies Impact Green Energy Internationally?

Introduction

Within the first month in office, the US’ President Donald Trump has clearly made a bold statement on the energy front – ‘drill baby drill’ has replaced the country’s green energy transition agenda. However daunting this fossil fuel rhetoric may be for the US specifically, will President Trump’s shift away from renewables investment actually affect the international community in any way?

Policy Overview

In his first days of presidency, Trump signed multiple executive orders relating to the slowing down of the green energy transition. These included orders declaring a national energy emergency, and kickstarting the ‘Unleashing American Energy’ Initiative, which not only signalled the President’s aim to expedite fossil fuel extraction, but also significantly reduced climate research funding and environmental regulations. Most notably, the US has since withdrawn from the international 2015 Paris Agreement, marking a shift away from concern about the mitigation of harmful greenhouse gas emissions.

The Impact on Renewables and Climate Goals

Unsurprisingly, these recent policies are posing serious threats to both renewable energy and climate goals. 

President Trump’s tariffs on imported clean energy technologies, as well as his steps to limit offshore wind production domestically and overall stance on climate change, have raised concerns about the future of international renewable energy. Reuters reports that there have been significant plummets in the shares of clean energy groups, notably in Europe; for example, the largest offshore wind developer Orsted fell around 14% in November, around the time of the election.

Moreover, Trump’s push to finance the next generation of artificial intelligence through an increase in coal and oil energy production is highly incompatible with the world’s climate change goals. Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement means that the US can now focus on economic and technological development nationally, without sacrificing progress for environmental friendliness. The US Government has, however, published a report predicting that emissions are expected to decline by 29-46% by 2030; it is clear that we cannot know for sure what the consequences of the withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will have in the long-term. What we can say for certain is that, as well as directly affecting the US, this U-turn on the Paris Agreement will heavily impact the EU, bestowing the global warming burden onto European countries. The withdrawal will likely mean that the EU, which is a major proponent of climate change mitigation and the Paris Agreement, may have to strengthen its climate-friendly policies to an unprecedented extent.

The US’ retreat away from green climate financing will also inevitably impact countries in Africa and other developing regions. The US’ deprioritisation of multilateral energy initiatives may lead to a decrease in public and private funding for renewable energy projects worldwide. This means that poorer countries with energy-rich resources will be unable to receive financial assistance for green energy projects from foreign nations, such as the US.

Domestic and Global Responses 

The question to ask now is: Has there been an energy-related cry for help since the inauguration of President Donald Trump?

In the domestic sphere, there is some hope for achieving climate goals despite President Trump’s executive orders. As a response to the US’ increasingly isolationist policies, coalitions and grassroots organisations such as ‘America is All In’ are mobilising resources and communities in order to prepare for climate impacts. The state of California has done the same, investing billions of dollars in climate action initiatives.

Internationally, China is continuing to propel green investments and renewable projects, remaining a key actor in the global green transition. In terms of Europe, however, President Trumps’ rollback on the climate accords is likely to cause tension between the EU and US, creating a rift in transatlantic relations. It remains to be seen whether the EU and China can grow to communicate on energy-related matters more effectively in this time of climate uncertainty. Parties to the Paris Agreement will now have to fill the energy void left by the US.

Conclusion

Overall, the presidency of Donald Trump brings with it a new era for climate goals and renewable energy projects. It is inevitable that the shift to green energy will face setbacks in terms of funding and international support, especially after the US’ withdrawal from the Climate Accords. However, hope is not lost – many climate scientists and experts believe that the growing advancement of technology will leave the US in dire need for mass green energy production, and in time, we will be able to reconcile the American renewables challenge with a need for global climate change mitigation.

References and Further Reading

"European Clean Energy Stocks Tumble as Trump Wins US Presidency" (Reuters)

"The Six Areas in Trump’s Executive Orders that Countries in Africa and the Global South Should Pay Attention to" (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

"The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions" (CSIS)

"The Trump Administration’s Retreat From Global Climate Leadership" (Centre for American Progress)

"Trump Reverses Climate Policies on First Day in Office" (AIP)